Taiwan Weapons Sale Rhetoric Heats Up
The press seems to have gotten quite excited about this issue finally, spurred on I suppose by some statements put out by the government here through the usual channels. There are certainly precedents for this kind of weapons deal, but the usual rhetoric by the PRC and U.S. governments seems to be a bit more heated this time around, perhaps because of existing tensions in the bilateral relationship.
As usual, the strong language from both sides of this issue is making me a bit queasy, or annoyed, perhaps slightly pissed off and rather despondent.
The AP has an interesting article on Beijing’s threats against some of the defense firms involved in the weapons sale, stating that punitive measures may be forthcoming. Not likely, say the sources quoted by the AP. Beijing needs to maintain a healthy relationship with companies like Boeing and other tech-based MNCs.
Yeah, I buy that. On the other hand, there is a lot that the PRC can do to make their displeasure known to these companies. Many options are open that would be non-governmental in nature (at least not directly), protecting Beijing from WTO fallout, and are flexible enough that China could pick and choose how, who, and when to mete out punishment.
These companies operate in highly regulated industries dominated by State-owned Enterprises. Beijing has a LOT of options here, so I would not be sleeping easy if I was the China GM of one of those defense firms. On the other hand, I don’t expect that any significant punitive measures will actually take place. These companies may be forced to wear some tight shoes for the next 12 months though, and its usually the country managers that have to bear the brunt. I pity them, although that’s why they get the big bucks.
The Guardian reports on the complaints from over here, some of which I absolutely agree with:
A commentary in the official Communist party newspaper the People’s Daily accused Washington of “rude and unreasonable cold war thinking”.
Gotta agree with that, at least the “cold war” part. The U.S. is still thinking like it’s 1950, after all, with a need for a China containment bulwark in the Pacific to counteract the global spread of Communism. I realize that some current big thinkers see a renewed need to contain China, but as I’ve said in the past, using Taiwan to do so is ultimately a loser strategy.
“The United States is still drawing lines based on ideology and coming up with a million ways to stymie China’s development and progress,” the paper’s overseas edition said.
Here’s where the rhetoric gets a bit nutty. This is very common language for a U.S. critique, but I feel justified in pointing out that while the U.S. may be acting because of ideology (there are certainly a lot of anti-Commie folks in the U.S. Congress, in addition to some Lefties that are Taiwan supporters), I do not think that this deal had anything to do with a plot to keep China from developing. That would hurt a lot of American companies, many of which spend lots of money on U.S. elections.
It also bears repeating again that the big beneficiaries here are U.S. defense contractors, many of which (like Boeing) are heavily invested in the continued development and progression of the Chinese economy.
China Daily, an official English language paper, said in an editorial: “China’s response, no matter how vehement, is justified. No country worthy of respect can sit idle while its national security is endangered and core interests damaged.”
Again, I find it difficult to argue with this. Two issues. First, having more and more weapons sold to an island right off the coast certainly impacts national security. No doubt about that, yes?
Second, Taiwan’s legal status notwithstanding, this is a domestic issue for the PRC government. How could China not see it that way? I think many foreign observers fail in an attempt to see the Taiwan issue from the vantage point of Beijing.
Americans, imagine that the Confederate government in 1865 had established itself on an island off the coast of North Carolina. Further, they were protected from being invaded by a cooperative deal with the French, who continued selling the Confederates weapons for decades.
Would this be seen as a U.S. national security issue? Would an average American see that as a domestic matter or would they resent the French involvement? Imagine further that a global ideological struggle was going on for much of this time and that France was on the opposite side from that of the U.S.
Crappy example, I suppose, but it’s actually difficult trying to come up with a more realistic parallel. The history of the United States does not include anything remotely close to the Taiwan situation. If Americans could actually imagine this sort of thing happening to them, I think support for current U.S. policy would evaporate (actually, I doubt that most Americans give a shit about Taiwan; the policy is indeed a holdover from the Cold War).
Anyway, let’s see if this deal follows the usual pattern and the rhetoric dies down in a few days. Probably a good bet since Spring Festival is coming up in two weeks.
Weapons being sold to Taiwan would not (and in some cases *cannot*) be used for any offensive purposes whatsoever. China’s actual national security is hardly being affected at all. Their plans for national expansion — of which Taiwan is only a part — are what stand to be affected.
That being said, I certainly understand the Chinese position on this issue and agree it’s hard to imagine them treating it any other way.
I can appreciate the Chinese position, however I think you’re leaving out a significant reason why the U.S. continues to arm Taiwan: because the United States long ago promised it would protect Taiwan. Arming Taiwan helps preclude a Chinese attack, an attack to which the United States would have to respond – for if it didn’t, the U.S. would be sending a seriously terrifying message to its other allies in the region (and in other regions): that the United States is not serious about its security obligations. And so would explode the militarization of East Asia. F-ing everyone.
So, while this situation certainly is a domestic issue for the PRC, like you say, it is also an important regional security issue for the United States, and it has little to do with the Cold War (beyond that our commitment to protect Taiwan was made during it).
You’re right, the U.S. has certain obligations under the T.R.A. and would have problems with other allies if it did not help Taiwan should the need arise. But doesn’t this highlight the need for the U.S. to change its Taiwan policy? Why on earth in 2010 should the U.S. be providing a security guarantee to an island off the coast of China? Ridiculous.
I personally do not think that China would ever move against Taiwan militarily. The PRC is already winning this “war,” and Taiwan is moving closer and closer to a HK-style agreement with the PRC. Just a matter of time. Knowing this, the U.S. could almost certainly risk discontinuing weapons sales to Taiwan. The benefits to its relationship with China would outweigh any regional security concerns, which I believe are minimal. Moreover, the Japanese understand the dynamic here as well, so I don’t think they would freak out.
Let’s not forget that we’re talking about dollars and cents. The US’s biggest export is probably military hardware and services. That’s all that is left of the empty shell economy that is the US. If it can’t export the only industry it still leads, how is it every going to even think about paying for those Acer laptops and HTC devices?
Wouldn’t it be interesting, however, if China somehow got access to some of these high tech military hardware sold to Taiwan?
1. You’re preaching to the choir. I may sound like a conspiracy freak, but I do believe that a great deal of the motivation for these deals is the $$$ made by these big defense contractors, who do a buttload of lobbying in D.C. These companies are the biggest beneficiaries here.
2. The U.S. government is not completely stupid. I assume they understand that any tech given to Taiwan over the past few decades has made its way over here to Beijing. These weapons are not exactly cutting-edge tech, methinks.
What I wonder is what do people on Taiwan think of this deal? Does the government have any say?
I remember reading a survey a while ago that the majority of respondents, whether they want to be part of China or not, agree that the best way forward is to maintain the status quo (whatever that means) for the next few years. Now I know statistics can be bull…but it makes sense that the majority of residents don’t want trouble and just want to live day to day.
That would be my guess too. I bet a poll of Taiwanese would show a majority opposed to the weapons sale. The Taiwan government, on the other hand, must have agreed to this.
oops ok that wasn’t my entire post
What about the government on Taiwan? Surely buying all this defense stuff is expensive. I remember reading some academic paper on the Chen Shui-bian admin, how they didn’t really want to keep buying expensive weapons but felt pressured to by the US govt/weapons producers.
I think the real winner here is the people actually selling the weapons…