While the “whiff of inevitability” may be strong in China, there are very practical reasons to suspect Taiwan cannot go the way of Hong Kong.

First, no political party in China can or would support a Hong Kong model in name or in actuality. I think that what the most pro-China voters here hope for ideologically is for the CCP to notice Taiwan’s experience and then do two things: (1) make the Taiwan experience at least partially a model for Chinese changes and (2) acknowledge the place of the Republic of China as not just a historical relic but a government that still is around, deserving of its own space.

Since the CCP is interested in neither of those hopes, and is not even really listening to those people, expect a backlash from previous KMT voters who have lost their enthusiasm for “greater China.”

Do not count on resolving the Taiwan issue any time soon, as the true distance in positions is very large between even the KMT and CCP, even if they have similar hopes for the final result.

Perhaps more importantly, do not count on Taiwanese nationalism to die quietly.