A new study tells us what we already know:

Beijingers have the longest commutes of any city dwellers in China, spending an average of one hour to and from work, according to a study released on Saturday.

Academicians warned that the lengthy transportation times in many cities showed that the “development of traffic systems is lagging behind urbanization”.

Calculations by the Chinese Academy of Sciences found that Beijing tops 50 major cities in commuting times – 52 minutes on average.

I am bringing up this study not to re-state the obvious, but to be decidedly more blunt than the study, or the article reporting on the study, concludes. In short, Beijing is losing the transportation war.

Besides the highlighted urbanization problems, Beijing has seen a massive influx of migrants who cram the metro system and vehicles that paralyze the road system.

More than 22 million people are living in the capital city. But the original plan of the municipal government was to contain the total population to less than 18 million by 2020.

The total number of cars registered in the first four months of 2010 rose sharply from 23.8 percent from a year earlier to 248,000, according to the Beijing municipal taxation office.

I sympathize with urban planners who have to deal with a massive influx of migrants, at least to the extent that the numbers are higher than expected. On the other hand, the government wants urbanization and has pushed policies that create jobs in cities. When there is a new high rise apartment building going up on every block, of course the migrant labor is going to come in and fill those construction positions.

As far as cars are concerned, I have zero sympathy. The automobile problem, and it certainly is a problem, can be laid directly at the government’s feet. The auto industry is an official key industry, as so identified by Beijing, and has therefore received special treatment and protection via government policies.

In the race to develop home-grown car companies, and to create new enterprises that can export, a massive new industry has been propped up and encouraged domestically. Nothing wrong with that in general, but those millions of car sales have run smack into environmental and urban planning policies.

Who wins in a dispute with the auto industry in China? Pretty much the auto industry does, with some minor exceptions involving pollution standards, the efficacy of which will be more than outweighed by sales growth.

Beijing’s bicycle culture is disappearing, and the air pollution is encouraging more and more people to get off their bikes and into mechanized transport, including e-bikes which have become the latest source of terror to pedestrians.

It’s a downward spiral. The air gets worse, so more people buy cars or take the bus instead of walking or biking. Public transportation becomes more congested, so more people buy private automobiles. And then the air gets worse and there’s more traffic. Bleah.

Given the trends here, building additional ring roads and more subway lines isn’t going to cut it. Something more drastic needs to be done, and it has to include cleaning up the air, making it safe to walk and ride a bicycle again, and to somehow reduce the incentive for everyone to buy a car. Since the latter will work against economic growth in general, and the powerful auto industry in particular, I am not optimistic.

Disclaimer: I own no form of transport in Beijing (or anywhere else) of any kind. The thought of driving sends chills down my spine and every time I buy a bicycle, it gets stolen. I am a regular bus and subway rider.