Happy New Year to you too, Stan. I’ve been reading your blog for almost a year now. I have a question regarding the US-China trade. What would happen to RMB if the US officially deem China a currency manipulator? I heard that the probability of this happening is slim, but I am just curious. Thanks.
Probably no change to the value of the RMB. The whole currency manipulator designation thing would allow the Obama administration to do certain things with respect to China trade, but I suspect that they would not avail themselves of some of the more punitive measures anyway. Remember that China is the one with the quasi-fixed x-rate, not the US, so the latter cannot just magically change that rate.
And yes, don’t expect any of this to happen in the near term.
Thank you Stan – Thank you for your always authentic and very funny take on China – You are an exception in the China blog world! Shana Tova!
Happy New Year to you too, Stan. I’ve been reading your blog for almost a year now. I have a question regarding the US-China trade. What would happen to RMB if the US officially deem China a currency manipulator? I heard that the probability of this happening is slim, but I am just curious. Thanks.
Probably no change to the value of the RMB. The whole currency manipulator designation thing would allow the Obama administration to do certain things with respect to China trade, but I suspect that they would not avail themselves of some of the more punitive measures anyway. Remember that China is the one with the quasi-fixed x-rate, not the US, so the latter cannot just magically change that rate.
And yes, don’t expect any of this to happen in the near term.
The Year of the Water Dragon, I believe. The seers suggest a relatively calm year – and here’s to that. Gong Xi Fa Cai! Thanks Stan. – Chris
Cheers, Stan, same to you too! Thanks for your great blog. I really enjoy it.