Geithner’s first trip to China as United States Secretary of the Treasury has come and gone. Before we fill out our scorecard, how about a quick look at my predictions from a couple weeks ago:

We’ll see what happens with Geithner’s first visit. I’m sure the press attention will be formidable, and I’m also certain that every conceivable possible slight against China made by Geithner (deserved or not) will be scrutinized. Be that as it may, I don’t expect his first visit to be eventful. There’ll be a lot of photo ops, a lot of well wishing, a banquet or two, and definitely a few words in Chinese by Geithner to show off his Asia Street cred and background. Should be good theater.

I would assume that Geithner’s number one goal is to make as little news as possible, get this first trip under his belt, and lay a foundation for productive future dialogue.

Hmm. I’m usually much more into self deprecation as opposed to being self-congratulatory, but in this case I am happy to make an exception.

Therefore let’s score this trip as a win for both Geithner and myself.

Okay, a little substance. Certainly there was a lot of press focused on Geithner for a variety of reasons. I still maintain that media types from both the US and China would have been ecstatic if they had been able to catch Geithner saying anything even remotely negative about China or PRC government policy.

Geithner successfully avoided that trap and yet was able to map out desired areas of cooperation between the US and China. His speech at Beijing University was really quite good. For one thing, the text is incredibly boring — I drank a pot of strong coffee before reading it and still managed to fall asleep halfway through.

This is a compliment. Geithner was not looking for flashy headlines here, and this speech certainly got the job done. Assessing whether Geithner’s “no drama” tour was successful, consider this hideously empty/boring headline from the New York Times: “In China, Geithner Backs Cooperation.” Not so great for piquing the interest of readers of the New York Times perhaps, but I bet a lot of folks in the White House are very satisfied nonetheless.

Geithner’s Beijing University speech layed out current global and bilateral economic issues, primarily related to the recession. It also explained current US economic policy and emphasized quite clearly the administration’s goals in reining in fiscal expenditures in the out years once the crisis has passed (i.e., don’t worry, your dollar investments are safe). This part of the speech garnered the most attention and was described as Geithner’s attempt to allay the fears of China the creditor.

I thought the tone of the speech was appropriate and measured. I was particularly impressed with the way that China was referred to in terms of a partner that had similar goals and aspirations with respect to economic policy. Framing the discussion in those terms made it much easier to come off as nonconfrontational while still listing several policy initiatives that the US would like to see some progress on.

This passage, which set up policy parallels between the two countries, is a good illustration:

Although the United States and China start from very different positions, many of our domestic challenges are similar. In the United States, we are working to reform our health care system, to improve the quality of education, to rebuild our infrastructure, and to improve energy efficiency. These reforms are essential to boosting the productive capacity of our economy. These challenges are at the center of your reform priorities, too.

Instead of enumerating a list of demands, or things that the US would like to see from China, the speech merely discussed policy goals of the Chinese government, with the much more subtle suggestion that the US government was on board with such initiatives.

In China, as your leadership has recognized, sustainable growth will require a substantial shift from external to domestic demand, from investment and export driven growth, to growth led by consumption.

Good stuff.

On the subject of exchange rate policy, the tone again was decidedly nonconfrontational, and Geithner scrupulously avoided (as he really needed to do, given his comments earlier this year) direct criticism. Instead, once again the speech addressed this topic in terms of US support of existing PRC policy.

Greater exchange rate flexibility will help reinforce the shift in the composition of growth, encourage resource shifts to support domestic demand, and provide greater ability for monetary policy to achieve sustained growth with low inflation in the future.

This language is not only impressive in its neutral tone, but tying exchange rate reform to sustainable growth and low inflation — well, I think this was preaching to the choir (growth and low inflation are the touchstones of modern Chinese economic policy). Well done.

If you are still not convinced that Geithner and his advisers know a thing or two about China, all you have to do is check out his final sentence from the Beijing University speech. Nothing else demonstrates China savvy then this sort of verbiage:

I look forward to working with you cooperatively, and in a spirit of mutual respect.

With the appointment of Gov. Huntsman as the new ambassador coupled with this successful trip, I think the Obama administration is currently in great shape when it comes to China policy. Let’s hope things stay that way.