First Time For Everything – I Agree With Gordon Chang
Yes, shocking as it is, Chang’s column than ran in Forbes, which sort of debunks the Q3 GDP figures, is pretty good and makes sense.
Credit where credit is due.
Now it is clear that China will attain for 2009 at least the 8% target that Premier Wen Jiabao set in January. China’s leadership is evidently satisfied. As the State Council noted on Wednesday, “The positive trend of recovery has been consolidated.”
How could it not have been? Since last November, Beijing has spent perhaps as much as $900 billion–from its own funds as well as those of the larger state banks–to jump start its $4.3 trillion economy. No government can disburse that amount of cash without creating some economic activity. (Forbes)
Yeah, that’s right. The numbers are kinda beside the point in a country where the government can still control major parts of the economy. The big questions concern whether current economic policies, specifically those meant to rebalance things and draw China away from an export-driven strategy, are moving in the right direction.
Whether GDP growth is 8, or 9, or 102%, doesn’t answer those questions. Of course there is growth. But is it “good growth” or not?
I was amused at all the ink spilled this week on the GDP number and the “moves” made by investors after the release. Lots of bullshit earnings-type stories about China missing targets, not meeting expectations and so on.
As usual, my feelings about the financial press include the words “sad,” “empty,” and “meaningless.” Unless you live and breathe Wall Street, I suppose, but then again, I have to ask why 85% of the stories written in major newspapers are fixated on the Wall Street view of things?
I’ve gotten off topic.
To summarize: Gordon Chang’s right. This will do doubt please his PR guy, who was sending me Chang’s clippings on a regular basis for a few months until someone at their shop figured out that I wasn’t (normally) a fan. ha ha


