CLSA’s Feng Shui Index: Even More Stupid Than Bringing Sarah Palin to Hong Kong
A good use of taxpayer funds?
Lest you forget, there was indeed a financial services firm so out of touch with reality that they thought paying Sarah Palin to come to Hong Kong and give a speech was a good idea. Well, I guess you have to spend your money on something. After buying a couple houses, a boat, and a few mistresses, what’s left?
These folks don’t just truck with stupid politicians, though. Since they are involved in the financial sector, their entire existence is predicated on pretending that rationality can be injected into a fundamentally irrational system. I refer of course to the stock market.
And what’s the height of irrationality, or what George Carlin called the “Greatest bullshit story ever told?” Religion, of course. So why not put the two together and see what happens?
Enter the latest iteration of the Feng Shui Index, which the Wall Street Journal’s Aaron Back wrote about yesterday (I assume he lost a bet or something).
The index, which applies traditional Chinese astrology to market forecasting, predicts a volatile year (pdf). Though the Year of the Dragon is traditionally considered auspicious, there are likely to be countervailing forces at work, CLSA says. The reason: This particular dragon year is associated with water, which is far less lucky for investing than other elements like fire and metal.
The index predicts a positive end to the year, especially in October and November, when the metal element dominates.
2012 a volatile year? You don’t say? Shit, why did I waste all my time reading up on economic trends, the U.S. election, the China political leadership shift, etc.? Obviously that kind of book learning is for suckers.
By the way, CLSA tells us, none of this should be taken seriously:
CLSA is clear that their Feng Shui Index is meant to be “tongue-in-cheek,” and issues several disclaimers such as this one: “To be fair, feng shui’s original purpose was to locate auspicious burial spots, not call the twists and turns of the equity markets or individual sectors.”
Of course — wink wink — we shouldn’t take that disclaimer seriously, since it was meant to be tongue-in-cheek, no doubt forced on CLSA by its legal counsel. Heaven forbid someone should follow their advice, lose money, and want to sue them.
But maybe I’m not being fair. Perhaps it is just for entertainment. It’s not like any of the smart folks in Hong Kong, particularly the big brains in the financial sector, are actually superstitious, right?
Just in case you think that this post itself is just for fun, go and read this excellent piece on feng shui in the Global Times. Lots of scary stuff in there about the real-world consequences of irrational, superstitious blather, including this anecdote:
Hu Jianxue, the former Party secretary of the tourism city Tai’an, Shandong Province, at the foot of the famous Tai-shan Mountain, was told by his feng shui master that he would soon be appointed a vice-premier of the country. The only problem the master said cryptically was that Hu lacked a “bridge.”
Hu somehow got it into his head that he literally needed to build a bridge and he ordered it done. He changed the route of a national highway so it would pass a reservoir and would require a bridge be built.
Hu must have thought this was a master stroke at unblocking his feng shui, but it got him nowhere close to his coveted vice premiership. His feng shui master apparently failed to warn him about the essential need of being an honest politician. Hu was later convicted of taking huge bribes and was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve.
When idiots follow the Feng Shui Index and lose money (as they did last year) or when freaks go out and spend 88,000 RMB for an auspicious fish, I may make fun of them, but their actions do not effect the public. However, when powerful local officials interpret the vague ramblings of charlatans as policy prescriptions, the public gets screwed.
And that’s a good reason to call bullshit on these quaint, cultural traditions.
Spoken as it is! Those charlatans need to be tarred and feathered and the same to the idiots who believe them. Well……. to a point.
I still squirm when remember the inheritance case in Hong Kong. While the death sentence would seem excessive for that fraud, couldn’t we torture him a bit?
As for Sarah Palin, they can top that with bringing Bachman over next, followed by Rick Perry. Seriously China could do a lot for the education of US politicians by paying for their holidays to Asia.
In the interests of international relations, the US State Department should refuse to grant those people passports.
Typically assumptive and over confident in their sub par work…I hope they keep churning this crap out until they lose all of their clients and render themselves obsolete… is there a video of that Palin speech? But Stan… technical analysis – while not an EXACT science – does in fact work and have legitimate uses and produce real results in trading. I would estimate that 80% of US portfolio mangers apply some form of technical analysis to their day to day routine… they have to.
Sweet. Suffering. Jesus.
Think of all the fun we could have if Tina Fey put on all of her Palin warpaint and ran a circuit around China, delivering her own brand of homespun advice to incredulous party cadre and business leaders.
Who China really needs is Borat. Forget about feng shui, he could could spark a roaring trade in gypsy’s tears and retard pubic hair, once enough people got on the bandwagon.
Personally, I’d put a lot more stock into Tea Leaves or Tarot Cards as scientifically-robust predictive models.
Nicely punctured. Pity these guys get such an easy ride in the mainstream media from lazy and gullible journalists who can’t be bothered to ask tough questions.
CLSA is the best research shop in Asia. Strategists like Russell Napier and Christopher “Greed and fear” Wood got an incredible track record. I remember Christopher Wood in 2002 warning against excessive debt in the US and advising to get long gold.
Yes, their Feng Shui Index is tongue in cheek and for proof of its value, they let you have it for free on their website, contrary to the rest of their production.
And to put the Sarah Palin invitation to their conference in context, they had Bob Geldof the year before, and George Clooney the year after.
So I guess it’s mostly for entertainment value, and to create the buzz, which it does nicely.
So many Financial Companies behaving badly, please don’t pick on the few good one(s?).
Disclosure: I used to be a very happy CLSA consumer, and found life ( well mostly trading) more difficult, since I’m not anymore !
Sure, there are worse things than giving Palin free pub and having fun with feng shui. On the other hand, one could argue that both moves give credence to irrationality, and that’s a bad thing!