Cashing in on Asset Bubbles – China Real Estate Edition
Real-estate database operator China Real Estate Information Corp. proved there still is interest from U.S. investors in Asian growth companies.
Friday, in its debut on the Nasdaq Stock Market, the company’s shares were at $14.20 in 4 p.m. composite trading, up 18% from the initial-public-offering price of $12.
[. . .]
China Real Estate operates a database and analysis system on residential real-estate developments, with real-estate developers as its major clients[.]
[. . .]
The market has recovered to the point that it rose above 2007 levels in the first half of 2009, according to company co-Chairmen Xin Zhou and Charles Chao.
“Since the financial crises, the Chinese government’s policy has been toward protecting economic growth and employment levels, so the real-estate market should be a big beneficiary of these policies,” Mr. Zhou[.] (Wall St. Journal)
I’m no real estate expert, so I could be way off here, but I think it’s safe to say that over the past few years, real estate prices have been floating up in rarified air, at unsustainable levels.
Since the recession began, the market has been assisted by government stimulus. However, to suggest (as the quote above shows) that today’s prices are the preferred result of Beijing’s stimulus program is a bit misleading.
Sure, stimulus policies were designed to hold the line on jobs and income, and to the extent that folks have kept their jobs, that is good in an indirect way for real estate.
However, that does not explain the recent price inflation in the stock and real estate markets. The explanation for those phenomena is that a lot of cash has poured into those markets from speculators.
Two major sources of those funds: hot money inflows from abroad, and stimulus money leaking out of projects.
If you are a real estate service firm, I guess this is all good news. Who cares where the money is coming from as long as prices are kept artificially high and deals keep being made?
So the IPO numbers make sense, at least if your analysis is focused on the short term. And does anyone on Wall Street care about the long term play anymore?


