Just a quick note following my “what’s the big surprise?” earlier post on this subject regarding the decision to exempt a bunch of SOEs from the new bankruptcy law. My position is that the law is sorely needed, a long time in coming, and needs to be ironed out a while anyway, so why not wait another year before dealing with the big headache of reorganizing these SOEs and all their financial obligations?
I saw with interest that Jeremy Gordon is essentially putting forward the same position, that the new law coupled with the SOE decision represents “two steps forward, one step back”. Dan Harris seems to be more bent out of shape on the SOE decision. I can relate, but I always try to play the low expectations game with governments, then I am rarely disappointed. Not the best advice, I suppose, but it seems appropriate here.
Seems like we are always waiting for the next law to be promulgated in Beijing. A few years back, it was the bankruptcy law, then a new franchise law, then one governing NGOs. It’s always something. And once you get it, you then have to wait for the implementing regulations to sort out the vague bits of the law itself (hint: franchise). After that, you have to wait to see if the local governments will implement the new law or ignore it for a while. Talk about frustrating . . .